[Life expectancy for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District. Part 2: Dynamics of old age threshold.]

The paper continues the study of the population ageing in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District. It characterized population ageing based on prospective ageing indicators that take into account remaining life expectancy. The dynamics of life expectancy (LE) at birth was analyzed. A computation and comparative analysis of the old age threshold for the regions that are part of the Northwestern Federal District have been carried out. A comparative analysis of ageing indicators - traditional and prospective (the proportion of the elderly and the share of the population above the old age threshold) was carried out. It has been found that there are no fundamental differences in the dynamics of life expectancy in older ages, as well as in the of old age threshold, between the regions considered. It is shown that for the male population in almost all regions in 2021, the value of the old age threshold is below 60 years, while for the female population the opposite inequality is observed. Thus, in 2021, the share of men over the old age threshold exceeds the proportion of the elderly in almost all regions considered, and for the female population, the share of the elderly is expected to be higher than the values of the prospective indicator.

[Demographic and professional risks of depopulation among working population in Russia: 14 years later (analytical review).]

The article presents a comparative analysis of the process of population aging in the context of demographic and professional risks of depopulation among working population in Russia. The values of the main medical and demographic indicators of population aging for Russia and developed countries were given. The results of UN forecasts, probabilistic forecasts of the total number and some characteristics of the age-sex structure for the population of the Russian Federation were analyzed. The state of demographic disadvantage in Russia and in the world was convincingly shown. Particular attention was paid to the consideration of the demographic risks of a reduction in the working-age population and an increase in the burden on the working-age population. The need for further research on the use of geroprotectors and modern gerontotechnologies as means and methods for preventing premature decline in work ability, slowing down the aging process of workers, reducing the mortality rate among working population and increasing professional longevity has been proven.

The paradox of aging population and firm digital transformation in China.

Although a number researchers have acknowledged that the aging population inhibits firm digital transformation, others find it promoting digital transformation in some firms. As the relevant literature to clarify such paradox is still scare, this paper wants to fill the gap regarding the labor cost theory, the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis, and the human capital externality theory. Based on the empirical tests of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2001 to 2022, this study detected a U-shaped relationship between the aging population and digital transformation. In terms of the institutional environment, higher marketization strengthens the U-shaped relationship by making the slopes on either side of it steeper. However, higher minimum wage levels weaken the U-shaped relationship. In terms of firm strategy, firms with stronger marketing capabilities strengthened the U-shaped relationship. However, firms with higher customer concentration weakened the U-shaped relationship. Overall, we enriched scholarly understanding of the impact of the aging population on digital transformation and demonstrated the dual potential impact of aging populations. Instead of assuming they are detrimental to the economy and society, positive contributions in the form of innovation and progress for companies can be detected.

Spatio-temporal coordinated development pattern evolution and driving factors of regional population and green economy: Evidence from Shandong Province in China.

The study of spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and factors affecting the coordinated development of population and green economy (CD_PGE) in Shandong province, China, has significant decision-making implications for promoting high-quality and sustainable regional development. Based on 2001 to 2020 panel data for each city and economic zone in Shandong province, this paper constructs an evaluation model for the CD_PGE systems. Using growth elasticity models, geographic concentration models, kernel density estimation models, spatial autocorrelation, analysis of population and regional green economy development in Shandong Province from the perspective of spatial agglomeration coupling, spatial and temporal coupling coordination patterns, and evolutionary characteristics. In addition, we use the fixed effect models and panel quantile models to empirically test the effects of coordinated demographic and green economy development. The results show that: (1) In terms of demo-graphic and economic development characteristics, Shandong's demographic and green economy development trends are good, but there are still many challenges. (2) According to the time series evolution and spatial distribution characteristics, the degree of CD_PGE in Shandong Province is on the rise, and the level of spatial distribution is distinct. (3) From the spatio-temporal dynamical grid evolution of the degree of CD_PGE, the CD_PGE is characterized by significant spatial clustering, but with large regional differences. (4) From an impact factor perspective, both market mechanisms and government intervention have a significant impact on the degree of CD_PGE, but the direction and extent of the impact vary.

Coupling coordination degree of healthcare resource supply, demand and elderly population change in China.

OBJECT: To analyze the trend of the coupling and coordination of the supply and demand of healthcare resources between the elderly population and healthcare resources in China during the period of 2012-2022, to reveal the impact of the growth of the elderly population on the relationship between the supply and demand of healthcare resources, and to put forward suggestions to improve the coupling and coordination between the supply and demand of healthcare resources and the elderly population, in order to cope with the challenges of an aging society. METHODS: By obtaining relevant data from authoritative data sources such as China Statistical Yearbook, Health and Health Statistics Yearbook, and the Chinese government website from 2012 to 2022, we constructed a comprehensive measurement index for the three systems of elderly population, healthcare resource supply, and healthcare resource demand; Using the entropy value method to assign weights to the indicators, combined with the coupling coordination degree model, to reveal the changes of the elderly population change and the supply and demand of medical and health resources; using ArcGIS technology, to study the spatial characteristics of the elderly population change and the supply and demand of medical and health resources. RESULTS: From 2012 to 2022, the supply and demand of healthcare resources and the variation of the elderly population in China show a continuous growth trend, and the comprehensive development level of the system gradually climbs from a low level to a high level. The fluctuation of coupling degree and coordination degree rises, although the coordination degree has always been lower than the coupling degree, but the distance between the coordination degree and the coupling degree gradually narrows with the passage of time. The coordination degree between population aging and medical and health resources development shows spatial heterogeneity in China, with the eastern region significantly higher than the western region/. CONCLUSIONS: The coupling degree between population aging and healthcare resource supply and demand in China from 2012 to 2022 shows a general upward trend from low coupling to medium-high coupling, but it is worth noting that even though the degree of coupling increases, the degree of coordination is still relatively lagging behind, suggesting that the government and relevant departments need to pay more attention to coordinated allocation and management of healthcare resources. At the same time, the spatial differences in the degree of coordination among provinces suggest that future policymakers should take regional differences into full consideration in policymaking and sustainable development.

Assessing spatiotemporal population density dynamics from 2000 to 2020 in megacities using urban and rural morphologies.

Rapid urbanization has resulted in the substantial population growth in metropolitan areas. However, existing research on population change of the cities predominantly draws on grid statistical data at the administrative level, overlooking the intra-urban variegation of population change. Particularly, there is a lack of attention given to the spatio-temporal change of population across different urban forms and functions. This paper therefore fills in the lacuna by clarifying the spatio-temporal characteristics of population growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2000 to 2020 through the methods of local climate zone (LCZ) scheme and urban-rural gradients. The results showed that: (1) High population density was observed in the compact high-rise (LCZ 1) areas, with a noticeable decline along urban-rural gradients. (2) The city centers of GBA experienced the most significant population growth, while certain urban fringes and rural areas witnessed significant population shrinkage. (3) The rate of growth tended to slow down after 2010, but the uneven development of population-based urbanization was also noticeable, as urbanization and industrialization varied across different LCZ types and cities in GBA. This paper therefore contributes to a deeper understanding of population change and urbanization by clarifying their spatio-temporal contingences at landscape level.

The impact of accelerating population aging on service industry development: Evidence from China.

The demographic structure is an important factor influencing the development of the services industry. As the country with the world's most serious aging problem, China's service industry structure is likely to undergo profound changes in response to the rapid demographic transition. Therefore, this paper examines the effect of population aging on the development of the service industry in the context of China's accelerating population aging. The study found that: (1) Population aging has a significant "inverted U" effect on the development of the services industry. (2) The impact of population aging on the development of the service industry has obvious regional and industry heterogeneity. The study of regional heterogeneity found that population aging in economically developed regions has a more obvious effect on the development of the service industry than in economically less developed regions. Industry heterogeneity studies found that population aging has an obvious promotional effect on the development of medical and other rigid demand industries, while the effect on other non-rigid demand industries is not significant. (3) The threshold effect test found that when the degree of population aging exceeds the threshold, the stimulating effect of population aging on the development of the services industry is no longer significant. The research in this paper provides useful insights into the likely response to changes in the industrial structure of the services industry, and offers some implications for countries with similar demographic profiles to China.

The latest policies, practices, and hotspots in research in conjunction with the aging of Japan's population.

Population aging is a global concern, and Japan currently has the world's highest proportion of an aging population. In 2020, the population age 65 and over accounted for 10% of the global population, while this proportion was 29% in Japan, and it is expected to reach 38.4% in 2065. The average life expectancy in Japan in 2022 was 81.05 for males and 87.09 for females. At the same time, Japan's healthy life expectancy continues to increase, and it is increasing at a faster rate than the average life expectancy, with males expected to live 72.68 years and females expected to live 75.38 years in 2019. This is causing the social role of elderly people in Japan to constantly change. The Japanese Government continues to adjust its policy orientation, to improve the health level and social participation of the elderly, improve the accessibility of long-term nursing services and the treatment of nursing professionals, and improve the pension system. By 2025, one-fifth of people in Japan are expected to suffer from dementia. Japan has implemented a series of policies to create a dementia-inclusive and less risky society. The proportion of the population ages 65 and over living alone in Japan increased from 4.3% among males and from 11.2% among females in 1980 to 15.0% among males and 22.1% among females in 2020, representing a sustained increase. Changes in the composition of the population have prompted sustained attention to the personalization and diversification of elderly care. At the same time, Japanese researchers continue to utilize scientific and information technology to innovate elderly care products, improve the efficiency of elderly care, and provide intelligent elderly care.

Seasonal trends and population status of the highly threatened Pteropus livingstonii in the Comoros archipelago.

Flying foxes of the genus Pteropus, especially those inhabiting islands, face increasing pressure from anthropogenic threats. A first step to implementing effective conservation actions is to establish monitoring projects to understand a species' population status and trend. Pteropus species are highly affected by seasonality which further requires regular, repeated, and long-term data to understand population trends, and reactions to severe weather events. In the present case study, a regular, bi-annual population census was implemented on Comoros between 2016 and 2023 for the highly threatened Livingstone's fruit bat, Pteropus livingstonii, and compared the results of standardized monitoring to historical population data. Seasonality had a large impact on the number of bats found at roost sites, with more bats present in the wet season, but the data over the past eight years revealed no significant in- or decrease in the number of bats counted on the island Anjouan. We estimated around 1,200-1,500 bats on Anjouan and 300-400 bats on Mohéli, and found that landcover type has no measurable effect on population distribution at roost sites. Our study highlights the need for long-term surveys to understand past population trends and that single counts are not sufficient to draw final conclusions of a species' status.

Study on the development characteristics and spatial and temporal patterns of population ageing in 31 central cities in China.

Background: Population ageing is inseparable from technological innovation, social progress and the development of human civilization, and constitutes a new element in the development of contemporary human history. Objective: To dynamically analyses the developmental, structural and growth characteristics of population ageing in 31 provincial capitals and municipalities in China, using the data of the fifth national census in 2000 and the seventh national census in 2020. Methods: The development characteristics and spatial and temporal patterns of population aging in the 31 cities were measured using the population aging index growth model, Theil's index, coefficient of variation, population aging index and other analytical methods. Results: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the population aging rate of the 31 central cities generally increased, and the population aging level of the cities showed the characteristics of "East-Central-Northeast-West" to "Northeast-East-Central-West" decreasing. (2) Regional differences in the ratio of old to young are relatively high, while regional differences in the level of population ageing are relatively small. The level of population ageing is classified with the indicators of size structure, family structure and age structure in the first and third quadrants, and with the geographic concentration rate in the second and fourth quadrants. (3) China's population ageing has a T-shaped spatial distribution characteristic pointing along the coast - along the Yangtze Rivers. Conclusion: The 31 central cities are the center of gravity of China's economy and have strong economic power in dealing with the challenges of population ageing, but how to make population ageing compatible with the economy and society, and then promote sustainable population development, is a topic that needs further attention in the study.

Forecasting the Early Impact of COVID-19 on Physician Supply in EU Countries.

BACKGROUND: Many countries faced health workforce challenges even before the pandemic, such as impending retirements, negative population growth, or sub-optimal allocation of resources across health sectors. Current quantitative models are often of limited use, either because they require extensive individual-level data to be properly calibrated, or (in the absence of such data) because they are too simplistic to capture important demographic changes or disruptive epidemiological shocks such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. METHODS: We propose a population-dynamic and stock-flow-consistent approach to physician supply forecasting that is complex enough to account for dynamically changing behaviour, while requiring only publicly available time-series data for full calibration. We demonstrate the utility of this model by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply of generalist and specialist physicians to 2040, and the impact of increased healthcare utilisation due to COVID-19 on this supply. RESULTS: Compared with the workforce needed to maintain physician density at 2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trend towards decreasing generalist density at the expense of increasing specialist density. The trends for specialists are exacerbated by expectations of negative population growth in many Southern and Eastern European countries. Compared to the expected demographic changes in the population and the health workforce, we expect a limited impact of COVID-19 on these trends, even under conservative modelling assumptions. Finally, we generalise the approach to a multi-professional, multi-regional and multi-sectoral model for Austria, where we find an additional suboptimal distribution in the supply of contracted versus non-contracted (private) physicians. CONCLUSION: It is therefore vital to develop tools for decision-makers to influence the allocation and supply of doctors across specialties and sectors to address these imbalances.

Primary Care Access in Areas of the United States With Aging Populations.

The percentage of U.S. residents 65 years and older was 17% in 2020, and this number is expected to rise due to the aging of the baby boomer generation.1Although life expectancy fell between 2020 and 2021, the proportion of U.S. residents older than 65 years continues to increase.2This age group often has more medical comorbidities and prescription medications, increasing the demand for primary care access. Domestic migration (U.S. residents moving within the country) of this retirement-aged population further strains the primary care workforce in underserved areas.

Making cities mental health friendly for adolescents and young adults.

Urban life shapes the mental health of city dwellers, and although cities provide access to health, education and economic gain, urban environments are often detrimental to mental health1,2. Increasing urbanization over the next three decades will be accompanied by a growing population of children and adolescents living in cities3. Shaping the aspects of urban life that influence youth mental health could have an enormous impact on adolescent well-being and adult trajectories4. We invited a multidisciplinary, global group of researchers, practitioners, advocates and young people to complete sequential surveys to identify and prioritize the characteristics of a mental health-friendly city for young people. Here we show a set of ranked characteristic statements, grouped by personal, interpersonal, community, organizational, policy and environmental domains of intervention. Life skills for personal development, valuing and accepting young people's ideas and choices, providing safe public space for social connection, employment and job security, centring youth input in urban planning and design, and addressing adverse social determinants were priorities by domain. We report the adversities that COVID-19 generated and link relevant actions to these data. Our findings highlight the need for intersectoral, multilevel intervention and for inclusive, equitable, participatory design of cities that support youth mental health.

Valoraciones sobre el proceso de prevención de enfermedades profesionales, a propósito de dos novedades editoriales / Appraisals about the Process for Preventing Professional Diseases. A Propose of two Editorial Updates

En el volumen 37 del último número de la Revista Cubana de Medicina General Integral perteneciente al año 2021, se identifican entre las novedades editoriales dos valiosos trabajos1,2 que motivan una valoración sobre la significación del proceso de prevención de enfermedades profesionales (PPEP), en las condiciones actuales del desarrollo socioeconómico del país. La baja tasa de natalidad y el envejecimiento poblacional, unido a la generación de nuevas formas de gestión económica que incluyen a trabajadores por cuenta propia, usufructuarios de tierras, pequeñas y medianas empresas, en ocasiones carentes de los tradicionales sistemas de seguridad y salud en el trabajo, operados por profesionales especializados, elevan la significación del mandato previsto en el artículo 69 de la Carta Magna, en términos de adopción de medidas adecuadas para la prevención de accidentes y enfermedades profesionales.3 En ese sentido, López y otros2) revelan, mediante revisión científica, las implicaciones del especialista en Medicina General Integral que se desempeña como médico de familia, con el diseño y ejecución de las medidas preventivas referidas en la cita anterior. Estos autores realizan un análisis integrador del Programa del Médico y Enfermera de la Familia y el Programa Nacional de Salud de los Trabajadores, con énfasis en las actividades de salud ocupacional, cuyo resultado constituye, en opinión de la remitente, un referente para reflexionar de manera creadora sobre el mejoramiento del...(AU)

Deforestation within breeding ranges may still drive population trends of migratory forest birds in the East Asian Flyway.

The East Asian Flyway (EAF) is the most species diverse of global flyways, with deforestation in its migratory landbird's non-breeding range suspected to be the main driver of population decline. Yet range-wide habitat loss impact assessments on EAF migratory landbirds are scarce, and seasonal variation in habitat preference of migratory species further increases the complexity for conservation strategies. In this study, we reviewed population trends of migratory forest breeding birds in the EAF along with their seasonal habitat preference from the literature and assessed the impact of forest cover change in species' breeding and non-breeding ranges on population trends. We found that 41.3% of the bird species with trend data available are declining, and most have higher forest preference in the breeding season. Despite 93.4% of the species experienced deforestation throughout their annual cycle, forest cover change in the non-breeding range was not identified as the main driver of population trend. However, forest cover change in species' regional breeding range interacts positively with the degree of breeding season forest preference in predicting population trends. We therefore stress that regional breeding habitat protection may still be important while following the call for cross-border collaboration to fill the information gap for flyway conservation.

Lower infant mortality, higher household size, and more access to contraception reduce fertility in low- and middle-income nations.

Although average contraceptive use has increased globally in recent decades, an estimated 222 million (26%) of women of child-bearing age worldwide face an unmet need for family planning-defined as a discrepancy between fertility preferences and contraception practice, or failing to translate desires to avoid pregnancy into preventative behaviours and practices. While many studies have reported relationships between availability/quality of contraception and family planning, infant mortality, and fertility, these relationships have not been evaluated quantitatively across a broad range of low- and middle-income countries. Using publicly available data from 64 low- and middle-income countries, we collated test and control variables in six themes: (i) availability of family planning, (ii) quality of family planning, (iii) female education, (iv) religion, (v) mortality, and (vi) socio-economic conditions. We predicted that higher nation-level availability/quality of family-planning services and female education reduce average fertility, whereas higher infant mortality, greater household size (a proxy for population density), and religious adherence increase it. Given the sample size, we first constructed general linear models to test for relationships between fertility and the variables from each theme, from which we retained those with the highest explanatory power within a final general linear model set to determine the partial correlation of dominant test variables. We also applied boosted regression trees, generalised least-squares models, and generalised linear mixed-effects models to account for non-linearity and spatial autocorrelation. On average among all countries, we found the strongest associations between fertility and infant mortality, household size, and access to any form of contraception. Higher infant mortality and household size increased fertility, whereas greater access to any form of contraception decreased fertility. Female education, home visitations by health workers, quality of family planning, and religious adherence all had weak, if any, explanatory power. Our models suggest that decreasing infant mortality, ensuring sufficient housing to reduce household size, and increasing access to contraception will have the greatest effect on decreasing global fertility. We thus provide new evidence that progressing the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals for reducing infant mortality can be accelerated by increasing access to family planning.